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“Immigration: Is Canada doing it Right?”
Presented by Richard Dowsett
Canada is a nation of immigrants. 95% of our population were migrants or descended from migrants. In 2021, 23% of our population was not born in Canada. This is the highest number in our history. With current trends, this figure will top 30% by 2040. In the first 20 years of the century, Canada accepted an average of 260K immigrants each year with a range of +/- 25% (199K to 323K). Since 2021 that number has jumped by 73% with plans to increase that still further (485K in 2024 and 500K in 2025 and 2026). Even after adjusting for Canada’s larger population base, our annual immigrant intake has increased from 8.3% of population in 2000 to 12.3% in 2023. What has driven this dramatic shift in Canadian immigration policy?
Demographics – While Canada has the highest share of the total population aged 15 to 64 among G7 countries, at 64.8%, the country's working population has never been older. According to the recent census release on age and type of dwelling, more than one in five people were closing in on retirement age (55 to 64 years), an all-time high. There were also more people aged 55 to 64 than young adults aged 15 to 24. Canada’s birthrate is the lowest in over a century. The current 1.33 births per possible birth-giver is 37% below replacement rate of 2.1.
Labour Shortage – Canada’s labour shortage stands currently stands at 815K vacant positions recovering from a high of over 1M vacant job in 2022. Demographic effects are expected to keep this figure high for the foreseeable future. Specific shortages in skilled professions (especially the skilled trades and health care) have constrained the ability of our economy to grow and have created quality of life issues for many Canadians (longer working hours, lack of service delivery).
Canada has decided to attempt to change its demographics and solve its labour shortages by these large increases in immigration.
The Benefits of Immigration
Economic – though immigration is a controversial topic, what is not debated is the economic benefits on many levels. Labor Market Dynamics, Increased Productivity, Entrepreneurship and Innovation, Tax Revenue, Consumer Spending, Fiscal Impact, Global Talent Pool are all positively impacted, most in the short to medium term and all in the longer term. Even conservative think-tanks concur.
Other Benefits – Anyone who remembers the cultural backwater that pre-1980 Canada was (even Toronto!) will appreciate the Cultural Enrichment that immigration has delivered. Being a wealthy country with influence on the world stage also means fulfilling humanitarian responsibilities. Providing refuge to refugees and asylum seekers is not only a moral imperative but also showcases a country's commitment to humanitarian values and international cooperation. I for one am proud of this Canadian value.
The Costs of Immigration
o Pressure on Public Services
o Wage Suppression
o Integration Challenges
o Social Cohesion and Cultural Tensions
o Strain on Infrastructure
o Security Concerns
o Public Opinion and Political Polarization
The biggest current issue linked to immigration is the Housing Crisis. RBC estimates that Canada’s rental housing gap is currently 40000 units and is expected to rise to 120000 by 2026! Though immigration did not create the housing shortage that has been around for over a decade, large jumps in immigration levels have exacerbated the problem.
The Million Dollar Question: Is Canada on the right track to reaping the benefits of immigration while mitigating its costs? What do we need to stop, start, continue?
Resources:
Canada Raises Immigration Targets – Global News 3:55 https://youtu.be/US0p1LUc_oU?si=rB5AoLmUpQmcNF0B
Why Canada Cannot solve its Population Problem with Immigration – Economics Explained 13:20
https://youtu.be/CxmH4OLNM4c?si=HXRo0iu-t9k9u2ww
Immigrants make up the largest share of the population in over 150 years
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/221026/dq221026a-eng.htm